Organization of Probabilistic Expert Estimates Collection and Interpretation in Political Forecasting

DOI

10.2991/cesses-18.2018.145How to use a DOI?

Keywords

expert estimates; probability; political forecasting; political forecast; network expertise

Abstract

The purpose of the proposed article is to study the probabilistic approach to political forecasts, obtained from experts’ survey. The article describes expert information collection characteristic features, in particular, the networking: for obtaining probabilistic estimates of specialists. Especially the paper considers the different ways of interpreting these estimates. The author concludes that not only forecasting methods play an essential role in scientific forecast, (although obtained estimates values depend on the correctly chosen data and information collecting professional method), but also the obtained prognostic probabilities interpretation.

Copyright

© 2018, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Dmitriy Alpackiy
AU  - Irina Alpackaya
AU  - Anastasia Kolosova
PY  - 2018/11
DA  - 2018/11
TI  - Organization of Probabilistic Expert Estimates Collection and Interpretation in Political Forecasting
BT  - Proceedings of the International Conference on Contemporary Education, Social Sciences and Ecological Studies (CESSES 2018)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 649
EP  - 652
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/cesses-18.2018.145
DO  - 10.2991/cesses-18.2018.145
ID  - Alpackiy2018/11
ER  -