A Chinese New Year Aware ARIMA Model for Electricity Consumption Forecast
- 10.2991/icacsei.2013.97How to use a DOI?
- consumption forecast, time series, seasonal effect, ARIMA model
The forecast of electricity consumption has a siginificant impact on both economics and society. Various models have been developed to make this forecast accurate. Among them is the highly successful ARIMA model which is based on time series analysis. However, when applied local in China, ARIMA forecast is not as accurate as expected, due to the moving holiday effect of Chinese New Year feastive period. This paper proposes a revised ARIMA model which adjusts its forecast by the use of a China New Year (CNY) coefficient. Preliminary experimental results on real data show that this revised model outperforms the traditional one.
- © 2013, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Tiao Cai AU - Xin Wang AU - Sui Huang PY - 2013/08 DA - 2013/08 TI - A Chinese New Year Aware ARIMA Model for Electricity Consumption Forecast BT - Proceedings of the 2013 International Conference on Advanced Computer Science and Electronics Information (ICACSEI 2013) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 385 EP - 387 SN - 1951-6851 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/icacsei.2013.97 DO - 10.2991/icacsei.2013.97 ID - Cai2013/08 ER -