Proceedings of the 2013 International Conference on Advanced Computer Science and Electronics Information (ICACSEI 2013)

A Chinese New Year Aware ARIMA Model for Electricity Consumption Forecast

Authors
Tiao Cai, Xin Wang, Sui Huang
Corresponding Author
Tiao Cai
Available Online August 2013.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/icacsei.2013.97How to use a DOI?
Keywords
consumption forecast, time series, seasonal effect, ARIMA model
Abstract
The forecast of electricity consumption has a siginificant impact on both economics and society. Various models have been developed to make this forecast accurate. Among them is the highly successful ARIMA model which is based on time series analysis. However, when applied local in China, ARIMA forecast is not as accurate as expected, due to the moving holiday effect of Chinese New Year feastive period. This paper proposes a revised ARIMA model which adjusts its forecast by the use of a China New Year (CNY) coefficient. Preliminary experimental results on real data show that this revised model outperforms the traditional one.
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Proceedings
2013 International Conference on Advanced Computer Science and Electronics Information (ICACSEI 2013)
Part of series
Advances in Intelligent Systems Research
Publication Date
August 2013
ISBN
978-90-78677-74-1
ISSN
1951-6851
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/icacsei.2013.97How to use a DOI?
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.

Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Tiao Cai
AU  - Xin Wang
AU  - Sui Huang
PY  - 2013/08
DA  - 2013/08
TI  - A Chinese New Year Aware ARIMA Model for Electricity Consumption Forecast
BT  - 2013 International Conference on Advanced Computer Science and Electronics Information (ICACSEI 2013)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icacsei.2013.97
DO  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icacsei.2013.97
ID  - Cai2013/08
ER  -