Proceedings of the International Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications in Business Administration in MENA Region (ICAIABA 2026)

International Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications in Business Administration in MENA Region (ICAIABA 2026)

📍Biskra, Algeria🗓️ 13-14 April 2026
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The Price of Prediction: Algorithmic Food Security and the Illusion of Control

Authors
Amine M. Benmehaia1, *
1Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Biskra, Biskra, Algeria
*Corresponding author. Email: ma.benmehaia@univ-biskra.dz
Corresponding Author
Amine M. Benmehaia
Available Online 24 June 2026.
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6239-711-8_37How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Food security; algorithmic governance; price signals; political accountability; systemic risk
Abstract

Food security governance in import-dependent economies has shifted toward algorithmic anticipation, with forecasts guiding procurement and reserve decisions in staple food markets. This paper argues that this shift reflects a reordering of coordination signals rather than a purely technical gain in prediction. I develop a parsimonious model of an accountability-constrained political planner contrasting price-signal governance with forecast-signal governance. Forecast-based policy can reduce visible price volatility under routine conditions but weakens price-mediated feedback and shifts risk toward the tails of the distribution. When forecast errors are correlated, centralized anticipation synchronizes policy responses, increasing systemic fragility and the likelihood of rare but severe disruptions despite headline stability. The analysis highlights a fundamental trade-off between visible stability and resilience and underscores the value of hybrid governance arrangements in which algorithmic forecasts complement, rather than replace, price-based coordination.

Copyright
© 2026 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the International Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications in Business Administration in MENA Region (ICAIABA 2026)
Series
Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research
Publication Date
24 June 2026
ISBN
978-94-6239-711-8
ISSN
2352-5428
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6239-711-8_37How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2026 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Amine M. Benmehaia
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/06/24
TI  - The Price of Prediction: Algorithmic Food Security and the Illusion of Control
BT  - Proceedings of the International Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications in Business Administration in MENA Region (ICAIABA 2026)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 396
EP  - 406
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-711-8_37
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-711-8_37
ID  - Benmehaia2026
ER  -