Proceedings of the 2013 International Conference on Applied Social Science Research (ICASSR-2013)

Crude Oil Market Pricing Mechanism analysis and Simulation

Authors
Xingchen Zheng
Corresponding Author
Xingchen Zheng
Available Online August 2013.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/icassr.2013.16How to use a DOI?
Keywords
chaos, market model, simulation, forecast.
Abstract
This paper aims to estimate chaos characteristics of different time in oil market and to forecast price of oil in short term. Method of Lyapunov exponent estimating and V-Statistics were utilized to estimate chaos degree and non-period cycle length, and an oil market model developed by the author was also utilized to simulate mechanism of oil price pricing process. The result shows that during the past 27 years, chaos characteristics had been reduced in oil market, but the price series enhanced its trend than before. In the case of simulation and forecasting, result shows that the oil market model can simulate the pricing process exactly. So the oil market model can be utilized to simulate the market pricing process, and forecast the price for decision making.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.

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Proceedings
2013 International Conference on Applied Social Science Research (ICASSR-2013)
Part of series
Advances in Intelligent Systems Research
Publication Date
August 2013
ISBN
978-90786-77-69-7
ISSN
1951-6851
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/icassr.2013.16How to use a DOI?
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.

Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Xingchen Zheng
PY  - 2013/08
DA  - 2013/08
TI  - Crude Oil Market Pricing Mechanism analysis and Simulation
BT  - 2013 International Conference on Applied Social Science Research (ICASSR-2013)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 52
EP  - 55
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icassr.2013.16
DO  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icassr.2013.16
ID  - Zheng2013/08
ER  -