A Heuristic Network for Electricity Demand Projection
- 10.2991/978-2-494069-83-1_117How to use a DOI?
- total electricity demand; MISO-ARX; Heuristic Network; OEI projection
Indonesia’s electricity demand in 2025 has been projected by the 2016 Indonesia Energy Outlook (OEI) of 513 TWh based on data obtained during the 2000–2015 period. This study tries to project the total electricity demand during 2016–2025 based on data on nominal GRDP growth, population, electricity sales in the household, commercial and industrial sectors, and electrification ratio. All data obtained in the form of time series data were modeled using MISO-ARX (Multi-Input Single Output Auto Regressive with Exogenous Input). This model is then represented using a Heuristic Network. After the training process, this network is used to predict the growth of total electricity sales in 2016–2025 based on growth data from 2001–2015. The prediction results are used to project electricity demand in 2016–2025. The comparison of the projection results using the Heuristic Network with the results of the OEI-2016 project is MAPE = 4.46%. With this relatively small MAPE, the projection results using the Heuristic Network can be considered fairly close to the results of the OEI-2016 projection
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Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Mulyanto AU - Bedi Suprapty AU - Rheo Malani AU - Arief Bramanto Wicaksono Putra AU - Emmilya Umma Aziza Gaffar PY - 2022 DA - 2022/12/30 TI - A Heuristic Network for Electricity Demand Projection BT - Proceedings of the International Conference on Applied Science and Technology on Social Science 2022 (iCAST-SS 2022) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 674 EP - 680 SN - 2352-5398 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-2-494069-83-1_117 DO - 10.2991/978-2-494069-83-1_117 ID - 2022 ER -