Research on Power Grid Contact Aging Prediction Based on Variable Modified Grey Model
Yi Zhou, Peng Xiao, Shunhe Jia, Jianfei Chen, Sheng Zhang
Available Online March 2018.
- https://doi.org/10.2991/iceea-18.2018.2How to use a DOI?
- contact aging; grey model; variable correction
- Research of grid contact is a hot topics of electrical power system. Serious aging of grid contacts will bring accidents or even fire. At present, the main research method of contact aging is grey model. It has the characteristics of convenient calculation and high prediction accuracy. However, the locality of factor variables is not considered in Traditional single variable grey model. For the multivariate gray model, it has high arithmetic and its prediction accuracy is too low. For this purpose, a Variable revision gray model is put forward in this paper. Firstly, Key factor variables is extracted for Modified variable. Secondly, Single behavior variable grey model is used to revise multivariate gray model. Finally, the proposed variable modified grey model is used in Prediction of contact aging. The results show that: In a complex environment, prediction accuracy of variable modified grey model much better than Traditional forecasting model. Up to 95.3%. Furthermore, the model can also be used in the occasion that Variable effects have a significant difference in multivariate prediction.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Yi Zhou AU - Peng Xiao AU - Shunhe Jia AU - Jianfei Chen AU - Sheng Zhang PY - 2018/03 DA - 2018/03 TI - Research on Power Grid Contact Aging Prediction Based on Variable Modified Grey Model BT - 2018 2nd International Conference on Electrical Engineering and Automation (ICEEA 2018) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 5 EP - 9 SN - 2352-5401 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/iceea-18.2018.2 DO - https://doi.org/10.2991/iceea-18.2018.2 ID - Zhou2018/03 ER -