Proceedings of the 2018 2nd International Conference on Electrical Engineering and Automation (ICEEA 2018)

Analysis and Forecast of Railway Passenger Volume Using System Dynamics

Authors
Xiaoyu Zhi
Corresponding Author
Xiaoyu Zhi
Available Online March 2018.
DOI
10.2991/iceea-18.2018.51How to use a DOI?
Keywords
system dynamics; railway passenger volume; forecast; number of railway staffs;mileage
Abstract

A system dynamics model is established based on the analysis of main factors and their relationships in the railway passenger transportation system. The causal loop diagram, flow chart and the Structural equations were established, and relevant parameters are determined. The model is verified by comparison of historical statistical and simulated data. Finally passenger volumes of next five years in railway transport system are forecasted. The results show that the model is effective and feasible. System dynamics model meets the characteristics of railway passenger transport system. It can be used to forecast short-term railway passenger volume well.

Copyright
© 2018, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2018 2nd International Conference on Electrical Engineering and Automation (ICEEA 2018)
Series
Advances in Engineering Research
Publication Date
March 2018
ISBN
10.2991/iceea-18.2018.51
ISSN
2352-5401
DOI
10.2991/iceea-18.2018.51How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2018, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Xiaoyu Zhi
PY  - 2018/03
DA  - 2018/03
TI  - Analysis and Forecast of Railway Passenger Volume Using System Dynamics
BT  - Proceedings of the 2018 2nd International Conference on Electrical Engineering and Automation (ICEEA 2018)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 233
EP  - 237
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/iceea-18.2018.51
DO  - 10.2991/iceea-18.2018.51
ID  - Zhi2018/03
ER  -