Uncertainty of the Offshore Wind Energy Resource Assessment due to Long-term Variability

DOI

10.2991/icsd-16.2017.66How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Offshore wind energy; Resource assessment; CCMP wind field data; Uncertainty analysis

Abstract

The long-term uncertainty of offshore wind energy resource in Sansha sea area was studied using the 24-year (January 1st, 1988-December 31st,2011) CCMP (cross-calibrated, multi-platform) wind field data with spatial and temporal resolutions of 0.25°×0.25° and 6 h, respectively. In this paper, three kinds of numerical approaches used for quantify the uncertainty of the offshore wind energy resource that were produced, i.e. statistic analysis, Weibull distribution function and representative year. Their performance was compared through the average of the whole dataset according to the criterions such as relative errors (RE) and correlation coefficient (R). The results show that, 1) Weibull annual wind speed and energy density during the 24-year in Sansha sea area are found to be less than 0.05/0.1% mean RE and 1.5/4.5% maximum RE with nearly 1.0 correlation coefficient, respectively, in comparison with statistic analysis. 2) For the past 24-year, the wind speed and wind energy density have followed a significant increasing trend in Xisha and Zhongsha (at the 90% confidence level), and has weak positive trend in Nansha. 3) Representative year approach can accurate assess the 24-year wind energy resource in Sansha according to less than or equal to 0.8% RE of mean wind speed and 4.2% RE of energy density,respectively. 4)The uncertainty is related to the long-term variability of the wind climate, even if a 15-year average, the maximum RE of wind energy density can exceed 6.0% in Nansha.

Copyright

© 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Bo Jiang
AU  - Ping-Ping Hou
AU  - Song Zhang
AU  - He Wu
AU  - Jie Ding
PY  - 2016/12
DA  - 2016/12
TI  - Uncertainty of the Offshore Wind Energy Resource Assessment due to Long-term Variability
BT  - Proceedings of the 2nd 2016 International Conference on Sustainable Development (ICSD 2016)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 298
EP  - 303
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icsd-16.2017.66
DO  - 10.2991/icsd-16.2017.66
ID  - Jiang2016/12
ER  -