Correspondence between Turning Points in Trend of Oil Price and Business Cycles in Japan

DOI

10.2991/icsd-16.2017.87How to use a DOI?

Keywords

oil price; business cycle; turning points; Japanese economy; state space model

Abstract

Oil price is crucial to understanding economic fluctuations in Japan. In this paper, we decompose the time series of oil price in the period from January 1971 to December 2012 into a long-term tendency (also called trend) and short-term variation, which is expressed by an autoregressive model. The correspondence between the turning points in the trend of oil price and business cycles in Japan is then analyzed. Particularly, after the 2000s, a clear relationship exists between turning points in the trend of real oil price and business cycles. Our results suggest that we can obtain useful information about Japanese business conditions by forecasting the trend of oil price.

Copyright

© 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Koki Kyo
AU  - Hideo Noda
PY  - 2016/12
DA  - 2016/12
TI  - Correspondence between Turning Points in Trend of Oil Price and Business Cycles in Japan
BT  - Proceedings of the 2nd 2016 International Conference on Sustainable Development (ICSD 2016)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 388
EP  - 393
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icsd-16.2017.87
DO  - 10.2991/icsd-16.2017.87
ID  - Kyo2016/12
ER  -