Markov Chain for Analysis of the Daily Number of New Confirmed Positive COVID-19 Patients in East Java
- 10.2991/aer.k.211215.094How to use a DOI?
- COVID-19; Markov chain; Steady state
COVID-19 is a new disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus that first discovered at the end of 2019 in Wuhan, China. Furthermore, this virus spread to various countries and was first determined to enter Indonesia on March 2nd, 2020. Markov chain is a method that used to model variables randomly. This research uses Markov chain to model the daily number of new positive COVID-19 patients in East Java. Markov chain model can be formed for a steady state, which is a state for a long time and a stable pattern has been obtained without any significant changes. The results formed 8 states in the form of number range. The range shows the number of additions to positive COVID-19 patients in East Java by January 1st, 2021 to June 22nd, 2021. By Markov chain after we found that these states are steady, we have the probability of the number of daily positive patients was highest at range 151 to 301, with the probability of 0.446032. If it is determined as the average number of positive COVID-19 patients in steady state conditions, the median value is 226 patients. By increasing vigilance and discipline in overcoming the spread of the virus by wearing masks, diligently washing hands and keeping a distance, the number of patients due to the COVID-19 virus can be reduced, especially if the vaccine is immediately given to all people in East Java.
- © 2021 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press International B.V.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license.
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Yuliani P. Astuti AU - Gita D. Safitri PY - 2021 DA - 2021/12/16 TI - Markov Chain for Analysis of the Daily Number of New Confirmed Positive COVID-19 Patients in East Java BT - Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Science and Engineering 2021 (IJCSE 2021) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 555 EP - 559 SN - 2352-5401 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/aer.k.211215.094 DO - 10.2991/aer.k.211215.094 ID - Astuti2021 ER -