Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Science and Engineering 2021 (IJCSE 2021)

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Markov Chain for Analysis of the Daily Number of New Confirmed Positive COVID-19 Patients in East Java

Authors
Yuliani P. Astuti1, *, Gita D. Safitri2
1,2Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Surabaya, Surabaya, Indonesia
*Corresponding author. Email: yulianipuji@unesa.ac.id
Corresponding Author
Yuliani P. Astuti
Available Online 16 December 2021.
DOI
10.2991/aer.k.211215.094How to use a DOI?
Keywords
COVID-19; Markov chain; Steady state
Abstract

COVID-19 is a new disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus that first discovered at the end of 2019 in Wuhan, China. Furthermore, this virus spread to various countries and was first determined to enter Indonesia on March 2nd, 2020. Markov chain is a method that used to model variables randomly. This research uses Markov chain to model the daily number of new positive COVID-19 patients in East Java. Markov chain model can be formed for a steady state, which is a state for a long time and a stable pattern has been obtained without any significant changes. The results formed 8 states in the form of number range. The range shows the number of additions to positive COVID-19 patients in East Java by January 1st, 2021 to June 22nd, 2021. By Markov chain after we found that these states are steady, we have the probability of the number of daily positive patients was highest at range 151 to 301, with the probability of 0.446032. If it is determined as the average number of positive COVID-19 patients in steady state conditions, the median value is 226 patients. By increasing vigilance and discipline in overcoming the spread of the virus by wearing masks, diligently washing hands and keeping a distance, the number of patients due to the COVID-19 virus can be reduced, especially if the vaccine is immediately given to all people in East Java.

Copyright
© 2021 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press International B.V.
Open Access
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Science and Engineering 2021 (IJCSE 2021)
Series
Advances in Engineering Research
Publication Date
16 December 2021
ISBN
10.2991/aer.k.211215.094
ISSN
2352-5401
DOI
10.2991/aer.k.211215.094How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2021 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press International B.V.
Open Access
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Yuliani P. Astuti
AU  - Gita D. Safitri
PY  - 2021
DA  - 2021/12/16
TI  - Markov Chain for Analysis of the Daily Number of New Confirmed Positive COVID-19 Patients in East Java
BT  - Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Science and Engineering 2021 (IJCSE 2021)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 555
EP  - 559
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aer.k.211215.094
DO  - 10.2991/aer.k.211215.094
ID  - Astuti2021
ER  -