Modeling of Capital Investments Public Financing Volume Using Logistic Curves
- 10.2991/aebmr.k.200318.044How to use a DOI?
- public finances, economic growth, economic reverse, public expenditure, capital investment, public investment, financial policy, financial resources, modified exponent, Perl and Reid logistic curve, Gompertz function
The methodological justification of the threshold value of the public financing of capital investments as a point of reverse (LPI)is provided within the current research. The point of reverse means a share of public expenditures in the structure of GDP, excess of which will slow down economic growth. The authors propose the solution of the scientific problem that considers a point of reverse calculation for the Ukrainian financial system. The LPIthreshold method is based on the construction of mathematical functions used to model and predict S-shaped processes, namely: the modified exponent, the Pearl and Reid logistic curve and the Gompertz function. According to the empirical studies’ results in Ukraine, the modified exponent is showing the most adequate results in the verification of the criteria fulfillment (Adjusted Multiple Determination Ratio, Akaike’s Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion). The upper threshold of public capital expenditures in Ukraine (LPI) is 7% of GDP, while the national economy growth in the form of GDP growth will not be possible in case of public capital investments reduction to 0.86%. The analysis shows that the amount of capital expenditures from the state budget is an indicator of the national financial policy that facilitates the extention of economic agreements or their restriction due to the multiplier effect. Thereby, public investment should be limited and targeted. At the same time, they should not be a substitute for all existing sources of investment activity financing.
- © 2020, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Vitalii Kuzmenko AU - Svitlana Urvantseva AU - Serhii Khodakevich AU - Volodymyr Romanyshyn PY - 2020 DA - 2020/03/23 TI - Modeling of Capital Investments Public Financing Volume Using Logistic Curves BT - Proceedings of the III International Scientific Congress Society of Ambient Intelligence 2020 (ISC-SAI 2020) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 354 EP - 360 SN - 2352-5428 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.200318.044 DO - 10.2991/aebmr.k.200318.044 ID - Kuzmenko2020 ER -