Proceedings of the  III International Scientific Congress Society of Ambient Intelligence 2020 (ISC-SAI 2020)

Modeling of Capital Investments Public Financing Volume Using Logistic Curves

Authors
Vitalii Kuzmenko, Svitlana Urvantseva, Serhii Khodakevich, Volodymyr Romanyshyn
Corresponding Author
Serhii Khodakevich
Available Online 23 March 2020.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.200318.044How to use a DOI?
Keywords
public finances, economic growth, economic reverse, public expenditure, capital investment, public investment, financial policy, financial resources, modified exponent, Perl and Reid logistic curve, Gompertz function
Abstract
The methodological justification of the threshold value of the public financing of capital investments as a point of reverse (LPI)is provided within the current research. The point of reverse means a share of public expenditures in the structure of GDP, excess of which will slow down economic growth. The authors propose the solution of the scientific problem that considers a point of reverse calculation for the Ukrainian financial system. The LPIthreshold method is based on the construction of mathematical functions used to model and predict S-shaped processes, namely: the modified exponent, the Pearl and Reid logistic curve and the Gompertz function. According to the empirical studies’ results in Ukraine, the modified exponent is showing the most adequate results in the verification of the criteria fulfillment (Adjusted Multiple Determination Ratio, Akaike’s Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion). The upper threshold of public capital expenditures in Ukraine (LPI) is 7% of GDP, while the national economy growth in the form of GDP growth will not be possible in case of public capital investments reduction to 0.86%. The analysis shows that the amount of capital expenditures from the state budget is an indicator of the national financial policy that facilitates the extention of economic agreements or their restriction due to the multiplier effect. Thereby, public investment should be limited and targeted. At the same time, they should not be a substitute for all existing sources of investment activity financing.
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Proceedings
III International Scientific Congress Society of Ambient Intelligence 2020 (ISC-SAI 2020)
Part of series
Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research
Publication Date
23 March 2020
ISBN
978-94-6252-933-5
ISSN
2352-5428
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.200318.044How to use a DOI?
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.

Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Vitalii Kuzmenko
AU  - Svitlana Urvantseva
AU  - Serhii Khodakevich
AU  - Volodymyr Romanyshyn
PY  - 2020
DA  - 2020/03/23
TI  - Modeling of Capital Investments Public Financing Volume Using Logistic Curves
BT  - III International Scientific Congress Society of Ambient Intelligence 2020 (ISC-SAI 2020)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 354
EP  - 360
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.200318.044
DO  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.200318.044
ID  - Kuzmenko2020
ER  -