Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference “Digital agriculture - development strategy” (ISPC 2019)

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Method of minimizing the risk of reducing the production of agricultural products by means of fuzzy logic

Authors
Ruslan Bischokov, Elena Didanova, Vladimir Trukhachev, Madina Marzhokhova
Corresponding Author
Ruslan Bischokov
Available Online June 2019.
DOI
10.2991/ispc-19.2019.89How to use a DOI?
Keywords
climate, precipitation, air temperature, air humidity, statistical analysis, random errors, piedmont zone, daily maximum precipitation, the number of days with precipitation of 5 mm or more, analog-year, fuzzy-logical model, crop yield
Abstract

The results of the analysis and prediction of climatic changes in the empirical time series of precipitation regimes and air temperature regime of the initial observations of meteorological stations located in the territory of the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic for the period 1955-2017 are presented. Estimates of random errors and statistical significance of distribution parameters, homogeneity (according to the criteria of Dixon and Smirnov-Grubbs) and stability (according to Student's and Fisher's criteria) during the time trends of integral empirical distributions of meteorological characteristics are obtained. Using the values of the yield of selected crops for the 30 years period, a computer adaptive fuzzy-logical model of the dependence of crop yield on changes in natural factors has been developed. By setting the predicted values of the climatic characteristics in the computer model, we obtain the possible values of the yield for the next agricultural year. In case of unsatisfactory yield values, we determine the analogue-year from previous years in accordance with the next year and develop recommendations for making management decisions.

Copyright
© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference “Digital agriculture - development strategy” (ISPC 2019)
Series
Advances in Intelligent Systems Research
Publication Date
June 2019
ISBN
10.2991/ispc-19.2019.89
ISSN
1951-6851
DOI
10.2991/ispc-19.2019.89How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Ruslan Bischokov
AU  - Elena Didanova
AU  - Vladimir Trukhachev
AU  - Madina Marzhokhova
PY  - 2019/06
DA  - 2019/06
TI  - Method of minimizing the risk of reducing the production of agricultural products by means of fuzzy logic
BT  - Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference “Digital agriculture - development strategy” (ISPC 2019)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 401
EP  - 404
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/ispc-19.2019.89
DO  - 10.2991/ispc-19.2019.89
ID  - Bischokov2019/06
ER  -