Proceedings of International Scientific and Practical Conference “Russia 2020 - a new reality: economy and society” (ISPCR 2020)

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Forecasting Food Prices in the AnyLogic Information System

Authors
T.N. Belova, V.V. Kupriyanov, V.S. Konkina, M.V. Kupriyanova
Corresponding Author
T.N. Belova
Available Online 24 February 2021.
DOI
10.2991/aebmr.k.210222.018How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Forecasting, systemdynamicmodelling, food markets, effective market management, AnyLogic
Abstract

The article describes an original approach to modelling the food market with the use of the developed by Russian scientists AnyLogic software. The authors propose a model of system dynamics simulating the behavior of the meat and meat products market in the time period from 2000 to 2019. The acquired results include balance consumer prices for the three basic products: poultry, beef, and pork. The calculation of the mid-term forecast of consumer prices in these markets confirms the reliability of the simulation model. The original model illustrates the historic dynamics of the market situation. The research shows that food markets are highly variable in such characteristics as the level of protection from import, the amount of state support, the level of competition, and the entry and exit barriers. As a result, the retrospective survey reveals a volatile growth rate of production volumes in this segment of the food market (poultry, beef, and pork). Thus, the poultry market is saturated with domestic products that have substituted imported goods. At the same time, the low growth tempo of the cattle meat production has brought to import dependence. The obtained results of the survey may be applied as tools for developing the economic regulation policy in the agro production markets.

Copyright
© 2021, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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Volume Title
Proceedings of International Scientific and Practical Conference “Russia 2020 - a new reality: economy and society” (ISPCR 2020)
Series
Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research
Publication Date
24 February 2021
ISBN
10.2991/aebmr.k.210222.018
ISSN
2352-5428
DOI
10.2991/aebmr.k.210222.018How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2021, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - T.N. Belova
AU  - V.V. Kupriyanov
AU  - V.S. Konkina
AU  - M.V. Kupriyanova
PY  - 2021
DA  - 2021/02/24
TI  - Forecasting Food Prices in the AnyLogic Information System
BT  - Proceedings of International Scientific and Practical Conference “Russia 2020 - a new reality: economy and society” (ISPCR 2020)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 89
EP  - 92
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.210222.018
DO  - 10.2991/aebmr.k.210222.018
ID  - Belova2021
ER  -