A New Judgment Method on Ship Accident of Waterway

DOI

10.2991/meess-18.2018.73How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Judgment, Bayesian estimation, negative binomial model, potential for safety improvement.

Abstract

According to the shortcomings of judgment method on traffic accident in waterway, the full Bayesian-based potential for safety improvement method is built in the article. The hot-segment of accident is identified with the difference between accident number of a segment waterway and accident expectation of entire waterway. The new identification method is used to identify hot-segment of accident of the Yangtze River downstream and which proves that the new identification is better. At last, three kinds of evaluation of SCT (site consistency test), MCT (method consistency test) and TRDT (total rank differences test) are used to evaluate the identification methods and the new identification method is further proved the best.

Copyright

© 2018, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Shukui Zhang
AU  - Jing Li
AU  - Xiangong Yan
PY  - 2018/08
DA  - 2018/08
TI  - A New Judgment Method on Ship Accident of Waterway
BT  - Proceedings of the 2018 International Conference on Management, Economics, Education and Social Sciences (MEESS 2018)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 398
EP  - 401
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/meess-18.2018.73
DO  - 10.2991/meess-18.2018.73
ID  - Zhang2018/08
ER  -