Research on Dynamic Prediction of Regional Economic Growth under Loose Credit Policy

DOI

10.2991/metss-16.2016.49How to use a DOI?

Keywords

loose credit policy, regional economy, prediction, Bayesian game model, trade

Abstract

In the loose credit policy environment, regional economic growth in China is facing the hitherto unknown opportunities, the dynamic prediction of regional economic growth is researched to improve macro-control ability of trade and economy, the traditional Lyapunove index prediction accuracy is not high, the dynamic prediction of regional economic growth under the loose credit policy is proposed based on Bayesian game model. The regional economic growth constraint parameter model under the loose credit policy is constructed, and the mathematical model is constructed by using the dynamic model of regional economic growth, interest rate and liquidity. Prediction model of regional economic growth is constructed by currency devaluation, national economic growth index of GDP, prices rising consumer price index (CPI), correlation index. Bayesian game model is used for the contribution weight equilibrium game. The dynamical accurate prediction of regional economic growth is realized. The empirical analysis results show that, the method for prediction of regional economy is more accurate, the confidence is good, it has high regional economic analysis, under the loose monetary and credit conditions, with the group state holding enterprises of bank enterprise relation adjustment, policy guidance financial institutions with economic structure adjustment, and economic growth is promoted.

Copyright

© 2016, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Zebang Tao
AU  - Jianjian Lin
AU  - Caixia Long
AU  - Haidong Li
PY  - 2016/11
DA  - 2016/11
TI  - Research on Dynamic Prediction of Regional Economic Growth under Loose Credit Policy
BT  - Proceedings of the 2016 3rd International Conference on Management, Education Technology and Sports Science (METSS 2016)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 232
EP  - 240
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/metss-16.2016.49
DO  - 10.2991/metss-16.2016.49
ID  - Tao2016/11
ER  -