Proceedings of the 2018 3rd International Conference on Modelling, Simulation and Applied Mathematics (MSAM 2018)

Forecasting the Use of Institutional Elder Care in China: A System Dynamic Simulation

Authors
Rong Peng, Cathy Gong
Corresponding Author
Rong Peng
Available Online July 2018.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/msam-18.2018.18How to use a DOI?
Keywords
institutional care use; system dynamic simulation; long-term care
Abstract
With the rapid population aging in China, the older adults who needs for long-term care (LTC) increased dramatically in the past decades. To forecasting the use of institutional elder care in China, this study constructed a system dynamic model for LTC use to capture the decision-making process of living arrangement and institutional care use among the aging population in China. The results showed that the number of older adults living at institutions will increase from 200 million in 2015 to 290 million in 2035, which account for an increase of 45%. This study provides policy implications that would assist policy makers understand the LTC delivery process and its influence factors, and help implement effective LTC policy scenarios.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.

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Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Rong Peng
AU  - Cathy Gong
PY  - 2018/07
DA  - 2018/07
TI  - Forecasting the Use of Institutional Elder Care in China: A System Dynamic Simulation
BT  - Proceedings of the 2018 3rd International Conference on Modelling, Simulation and Applied Mathematics (MSAM 2018)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 78
EP  - 81
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/msam-18.2018.18
DO  - https://doi.org/10.2991/msam-18.2018.18
ID  - Peng2018/07
ER  -