Forecasting the Use of Institutional Elder Care in China: A System Dynamic Simulation
Rong Peng, Cathy Gong
Available Online July 2018.
- 10.2991/msam-18.2018.18How to use a DOI?
- institutional care use; system dynamic simulation; long-term care
With the rapid population aging in China, the older adults who needs for long-term care (LTC) increased dramatically in the past decades. To forecasting the use of institutional elder care in China, this study constructed a system dynamic model for LTC use to capture the decision-making process of living arrangement and institutional care use among the aging population in China. The results showed that the number of older adults living at institutions will increase from 200 million in 2015 to 290 million in 2035, which account for an increase of 45%. This study provides policy implications that would assist policy makers understand the LTC delivery process and its influence factors, and help implement effective LTC policy scenarios.
- © 2018, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Rong Peng AU - Cathy Gong PY - 2018/07 DA - 2018/07 TI - Forecasting the Use of Institutional Elder Care in China: A System Dynamic Simulation BT - Proceedings of the 2018 3rd International Conference on Modelling, Simulation and Applied Mathematics (MSAM 2018) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 78 EP - 81 SN - 1951-6851 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/msam-18.2018.18 DO - 10.2991/msam-18.2018.18 ID - Peng2018/07 ER -