Optimal Investment Model for New Technology Project
- 10.2991/aebmr.k.200730.073How to use a DOI?
- optimality, single-product model, project, strategy
One of the most important directions in the study of the behavior of dynamic models in economy is the analysis of effective trajectories, i.e. the analysis of their common properties, not depending on the trajectory, but determined only by the dynamic model. This approach makes it possible to make long-term forecasts and analyze long-term growth rates and structural changes in the economy, to form a perspective view of the general features of behavior in the economy sector. The theoretical basis for such an analysis is the asymptotic (well-known at infinity horizon) properties of the finite sections of the effective trajectories found in solving the stationary problem that are widely known in economic dynamics. The subject of the study is a project model that allows full analysis of the possibility of investing in innovative technologies in enterprises. The aim of the work is to substantiate the possibility of using a probabilistic approach to build a single-product model of transients using a new technology. In the work, the problem of substantiating investment investments in the project of transition from the used (old) technology to the new one with a higher growth rate for the case of a one-dimensional model is solved. It was assumed that the transition was spasmodic at the time the accumulated investment reached a certain threshold value, which is a random variable. As a result of the study, the following significant points were formulated and determined: the optimal investment strategy was formulated as a function of the current “state” of the system, it was substantiated that there was a probability of three types of trajectory behavior, determined by the relationships between growth rates, and the presence of a “risk area” was established, in the event of a hit in which the system is very likely to come to complete destructuring. The paper provides an overview of literary sources in the subject area, as well as an economic interpretation of the results.
- © 2020, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - M.L. Lapshina AU - V.E. Sukhova AU - N.A. Safonova PY - 2020 DA - 2020/08/01 TI - Optimal Investment Model for New Technology Project BT - Proceedings of the Russian Conference on Digital Economy and Knowledge Management (RuDEcK 2020) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 399 EP - 406 SN - 2352-5428 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.200730.073 DO - 10.2991/aebmr.k.200730.073 ID - Lapshina2020 ER -