Selection of Ship Traffic Accidents Forecasting Models in Downstream Waterway of Yangtze River
- Shukui Zhang, Keyin Miao, Jing Li
- Corresponding Author
- Shukui Zhang
Available Online June 2018.
- https://doi.org/10.2991/saeme-18.2018.47How to use a DOI?
- Waterway safety, accidents forecasting, Poisson models, analysis
- In order to explore the key factors causing vessel traffic accidents, historical accident data and vessel traffic data at 9 waterways of Yangtze River in Jiangsu are employed, and the accidents are verified to follow lognormal distribution. Five Poisson-lognormal accident forecasting models are established taking the vessel traffic accidents from 2009 to 2014 as dependent variables and vessel traffic, waterway length, and design consistency (including waterway depth, waterway width, curvature changing rate, vessel speed difference and vessel speed changing rate) as explanatory variables. Among the five models, the one with vessel speed changing rate as design consistency measure has the best effect.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Shukui Zhang AU - Keyin Miao AU - Jing Li PY - 2018/06 DA - 2018/06 TI - Selection of Ship Traffic Accidents Forecasting Models in Downstream Waterway of Yangtze River BT - 2018 International Conference on Sports, Arts, Education and Management Engineering (SAEME 2018) PB - Atlantis Press UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/saeme-18.2018.47 DO - https://doi.org/10.2991/saeme-18.2018.47 ID - Zhang2018/06 ER -