Proceedings of the 2018 International Conference on Sports, Arts, Education and Management Engineering (SAEME 2018)

Selection of Ship Traffic Accidents Forecasting Models in Downstream Waterway of Yangtze River

Authors
Shukui Zhang, Keyin Miao, Jing Li
Corresponding Author
Shukui Zhang
Available Online June 2018.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/saeme-18.2018.47How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Waterway safety, accidents forecasting, Poisson models, analysis
Abstract
In order to explore the key factors causing vessel traffic accidents, historical accident data and vessel traffic data at 9 waterways of Yangtze River in Jiangsu are employed, and the accidents are verified to follow lognormal distribution. Five Poisson-lognormal accident forecasting models are established taking the vessel traffic accidents from 2009 to 2014 as dependent variables and vessel traffic, waterway length, and design consistency (including waterway depth, waterway width, curvature changing rate, vessel speed difference and vessel speed changing rate) as explanatory variables. Among the five models, the one with vessel speed changing rate as design consistency measure has the best effect.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.

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Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Shukui Zhang
AU  - Keyin Miao
AU  - Jing Li
PY  - 2018/06
DA  - 2018/06
TI  - Selection of Ship Traffic Accidents Forecasting Models in Downstream Waterway of Yangtze River
BT  - 2018 International Conference on Sports, Arts, Education and Management Engineering (SAEME 2018)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/saeme-18.2018.47
DO  - https://doi.org/10.2991/saeme-18.2018.47
ID  - Zhang2018/06
ER  -