Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health

Volume 5, Issue 4, December 2015, Pages 397 - 403

Seasonality and trend analysis of tuberculosis in Lahore, Pakistan from 2006 to 2013

Authors
Aasia Khaliqa, *, aasia.khaliq.pu@gmail.com, Syeda Aadila Batoolb, M. Nawaz Chaudhrya
aCollege of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of the Punjab, Quaid-e-Azam Campus, Lahore 54590, Pakistan
bDepartment of Space Sciences, University of the Punjab, Quaid-e-Azam Campus, Lahore 54590, Pakistan
*Corresponding author.
Corresponding Author
Received 4 February 2015, Revised 29 July 2015, Accepted 31 July 2015, Available Online 28 August 2015.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jegh.2015.07.007How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Correlation, DOTS, Pakistan, Seasonality, Time series, Tuberculosis
Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is a respiratory infectious disease which shows seasonality. Seasonal variation in TB notifications has been reported in different regions, suggesting that various geographic and demographic factors are involved in seasonality. The study was designed to find out the temporal and seasonal pattern of TB incidence in Lahore, Pakistan from 2006 to 2013 in newly diagnosed pulmonary TB cases. SPSS version 21 software was used for correlation to determine the temporal relationship and time series analysis for seasonal variation. Temperature was found to be significantly associated with TB incidence at the 0.01 level with p = 0.006 and r = 0.477. Autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function showed a significant peak at lag 4 suggesting a seasonal component of the TB series. Seasonal adjusted factor showed peak seasonal variation in the second quarter (April–June). The expert modeler predicted the Holt–Winter’s additive model as the best fit model for the time series, which exhibits a linear trend with constant (additive) seasonal variations, and the stationary R2 value was found to be 0.693. The forecast shows a declining trend with seasonality. A significant temporal relation with a seasonal pattern and declining trend with variable amplitudes of fluctuation was observed in the incidence of TB.

Copyright
© 2015 Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Open Access
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

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Journal
Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health
Volume-Issue
5 - 4
Pages
397 - 403
Publication Date
2015/08/28
ISSN (Online)
2210-6014
ISSN (Print)
2210-6006
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jegh.2015.07.007How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2015 Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Open Access
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Cite this article

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Aasia Khaliq
AU  - Syeda Aadila Batool
AU  - M. Nawaz Chaudhry
PY  - 2015
DA  - 2015/08/28
TI  - Seasonality and trend analysis of tuberculosis in Lahore, Pakistan from 2006 to 2013
JO  - Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health
SP  - 397
EP  - 403
VL  - 5
IS  - 4
SN  - 2210-6014
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jegh.2015.07.007
DO  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jegh.2015.07.007
ID  - Khaliq2015
ER  -