Research on quality evaluation of landslide forecast model

DOI

10.2991/iccet-15.2015.101How to use a DOI?

Keywords

landslide forecast; fitting effect; experiment forecast effect; quality evaluation

Abstract

In recent years, At home and abroad scholars proposed a great deal of mathematical models on landslide forecast, which through the fitting of landslide monitoring data and trend analysis to determine the landslides time. How to determine the results of the analysis to different mathematical models and identify good and bad quality of the forecast model is an important problem to the landslide forecast and decision-makers. The author proposed fitting effect index(including posterior index, model fitting efficiency index and RMS error) and experiment forecast effect index(including experiment forecast index and related coefficient index), which establishment quality testing model of landslide forecast. Using gray GM (1,1) mathematical model, the three exponential smoothing model and time series model fit and experiment forecast the monitoring data of Lianziya dangerous rock body in the three gorges of the Yangtze river. Using fitting effect index and experiment forecast effect index comprehensive analysis, the results showed the quality testing model of landslide forecast is an effective and practical approach.

Copyright

© 2015, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Download article (PDF)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Zhaoyang Wang
PY  - 2015/11
DA  - 2015/11
TI  - Research on quality evaluation of landslide forecast model
BT  - Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Civil Engineering and Transportation 2015
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 546
EP  - 550
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/iccet-15.2015.101
DO  - 10.2991/iccet-15.2015.101
ID  - Wang2015/11
ER  -