A Method for Predicting the Average Selling Price of Cigarette Per Carton Based on Multiple Linear Regression

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6463-368-9_15How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Multivariate Linear Regression; Operational budget; Average selling price of cigarettes per carton

Abstract

As the cigarette industry shifted from the dual-growth model of "sales + structure" to the single-channel development model of "structure", the sustainable growth of the single-carton sales structure has become an important hand for the industry to realize high-quality development. However, the current prediction methods for the average price of cigarette sales per unit rely heavily on empirical forecasting, lacking in theoretical and scientific basis, and fall short of practical needs. In order to further improve the prediction accuracy of the average price of cigarette sales per unit, this paper combines macroeconomic indicators, constructs a multiple linear regression model, and screens the economic indicators and tests the model through the unit root testing, difference handing and autocorrelation test. Focusing on the cigarette business budget of Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture, this study finds that the structure of cigarette sales per unit directly affects the average sales price, which is closely tied to consumer demand. It further reveals that cigarette consumption is influenced by seven macroeconomic factors: the growth rate of tax benefits, urban disposable income growth rate, national per-unit sales, GDP, the added value of the tertiary sector, CPI index, and household food expenditure. Consequently, a multivariate linear regression model is constructed with these seven factors as independent variables to predict the average price of cigarette sales per unit. The results demonstrate that this model can effectively explain 95.6% of the variance in the average price per unit, which can significantly enhance the accuracy and scientific rigor of measurable and controllable cigarette marketing with an average prediction accuracy of 99.58%.

Copyright

© 2024 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Xin Qu
AU  - Huahua Wu
AU  - Yan Liang
AU  - Wei Yu
AU  - Jianbo Xue
AU  - Xiaoxia Shen
AU  - Qiao Liang
AU  - Changhua Chen
PY  - 2024
DA  - 2024/02/14
TI  - A Method for Predicting the Average Selling Price of Cigarette Per Carton Based on Multiple Linear Regression
BT  - Proceedings of the 2023 5th International Conference on Economic Management and Cultural Industry (ICEMCI 2023)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 108
EP  - 122
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-368-9_15
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-368-9_15
ID  - Qu2024
ER  -