Proceedings of the 2021 International Conference on Social Sciences and Big Data Application (ICSSBDA 2021)

Loss Distribution of Drought Disasters in Yunnan Province Based on ECM Model

Authors
Kaimin Li*, Guang Li, Yuanyuan Zhang
Baoshan University, Baoshan Yunnan, 678000, China
*Corresponding author. Email: 13170241@qq.com
Corresponding Author
Kaimin Li
Available Online 17 December 2021.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.211216.046How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Damage area; Direct economic loss; Co-integration test; ECM model
Abstract

This paper attempts to analyze the relationship between drought disaster area and direct economic loss in Yunnan Province based on the method of co-integration test and the error correction model. Firstly, the stationarity of the sequence is judged according to the auto-correlation and partial auto-correlation analysis diagrams of the sequence and the results of ADF test; Then, the OLS regression model of first-order difference sequence is established. Combined with the residual sequence of OLS estimation and the results of ADF test, it is concluded that the sequence has a co-integration relationship; Finally, the ECM model with error correction term is established. It is found that the model has a good fitting effect, and can well describe the short-term fluctuation and long-term equilibrium relationship between drought disaster affected area and direct monetary loss series.

Copyright
© 2021 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press SARL.
Open Access
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2021 International Conference on Social Sciences and Big Data Application (ICSSBDA 2021)
Series
Advances in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research
Publication Date
17 December 2021
ISBN
978-94-6239-487-2
ISSN
2352-5398
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.211216.046How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2021 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press SARL.
Open Access
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license.

Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Kaimin Li
AU  - Guang Li
AU  - Yuanyuan Zhang
PY  - 2021
DA  - 2021/12/17
TI  - Loss Distribution of Drought Disasters in Yunnan Province Based on ECM Model
BT  - Proceedings of the 2021 International Conference on Social Sciences and Big Data Application (ICSSBDA 2021)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 241
EP  - 248
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.211216.046
DO  - https://doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.211216.046
ID  - Li2021
ER  -