Loss Distribution of Drought Disasters in Yunnan Province Based on ECM Model

DOI

10.2991/assehr.k.211216.046How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Damage area; Direct economic loss; Co-integration test; ECM model

Abstract

This paper attempts to analyze the relationship between drought disaster area and direct economic loss in Yunnan Province based on the method of co-integration test and the error correction model. Firstly, the stationarity of the sequence is judged according to the auto-correlation and partial auto-correlation analysis diagrams of the sequence and the results of ADF test; Then, the OLS regression model of first-order difference sequence is established. Combined with the residual sequence of OLS estimation and the results of ADF test, it is concluded that the sequence has a co-integration relationship; Finally, the ECM model with error correction term is established. It is found that the model has a good fitting effect, and can well describe the short-term fluctuation and long-term equilibrium relationship between drought disaster affected area and direct monetary loss series.

Copyright

© 2021 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press SARL.

Open Access

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Kaimin Li
AU  - Guang Li
AU  - Yuanyuan Zhang
PY  - 2021
DA  - 2021/12/17
TI  - Loss Distribution of Drought Disasters in Yunnan Province Based on ECM Model
BT  - Proceedings of the 2021 International Conference on Social Sciences and Big Data Application (ICSSBDA 2021)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 241
EP  - 248
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.211216.046
DO  - 10.2991/assehr.k.211216.046
ID  - Li2021
ER  -