Loss Distribution of Drought Disasters in Yunnan Province Based on ECM Model
- https://doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.211216.046How to use a DOI?
- Damage area; Direct economic loss; Co-integration test; ECM model
This paper attempts to analyze the relationship between drought disaster area and direct economic loss in Yunnan Province based on the method of co-integration test and the error correction model. Firstly, the stationarity of the sequence is judged according to the auto-correlation and partial auto-correlation analysis diagrams of the sequence and the results of ADF test; Then, the OLS regression model of first-order difference sequence is established. Combined with the residual sequence of OLS estimation and the results of ADF test, it is concluded that the sequence has a co-integration relationship; Finally, the ECM model with error correction term is established. It is found that the model has a good fitting effect, and can well describe the short-term fluctuation and long-term equilibrium relationship between drought disaster affected area and direct monetary loss series.
- © 2021 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press SARL.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license.
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Kaimin Li AU - Guang Li AU - Yuanyuan Zhang PY - 2021 DA - 2021/12/17 TI - Loss Distribution of Drought Disasters in Yunnan Province Based on ECM Model BT - Proceedings of the 2021 International Conference on Social Sciences and Big Data Application (ICSSBDA 2021) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 241 EP - 248 SN - 2352-5398 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.211216.046 DO - https://doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.211216.046 ID - Li2021 ER -