A Method to Forecast Photo-voltaic Power Outputs Based on Markov Chain

DOI

10.2991/ipemec-15.2015.88How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Photo-voltaic power prediction; Markov chain; State space; Predicion step

Abstract

Large-scale grid-connected operation of photo-voltaic power station will influence the stable and economic operation of the grid. Effective forecast method of photo-voltaic power outputs is benefit for the whole scheduling and reasonable operating of the grid. A prediction method based on Markov chain absolute distribution is proposed to realize the short-term forecast of photo-voltaic power outputs. The impacts of different state spaces numbers and different prediction steps on the prediction accuracy are analyzed. The simulation results show the validity of this method using history data at a photo-voltaic station.

Copyright

© 2015, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Hua Zhang
AU  - Xiaojuan Han
AU  - Jin-yue Dou
PY  - 2015/05
DA  - 2015/05
TI  - A Method to Forecast Photo-voltaic Power Outputs Based on Markov Chain
BT  - Proceedings of the 2015 International Power, Electronics and Materials Engineering Conference
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 465
EP  - 470
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/ipemec-15.2015.88
DO  - 10.2991/ipemec-15.2015.88
ID  - Zhang2015/05
ER  -