Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response

Volume 10, Issue 4, December 2020, Pages 160 - 167

Risk Forecasting in the Light of Big Data

Authors
Roman Kernchen*, ORCID
Eyvor Institute, Roedingsmarkt 20, Hamburg 20459, Germany
Corresponding Author
Roman Kernchen
Received 6 July 2020, Accepted 29 December 2020, Available Online 21 January 2021.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.201230.001How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Big data, risk forecasting, systemic risk, predictive analytics, machine learning, security risk, sustainable development risk, financial risk
Abstract

Life in modern society is increasingly connected by networks that link the world around us and create numerous exciting opportunities, new services and advantages for humanity. Yet concurrently, these underpinning networks have provided routes by which potentially dangerous and harmful incidents can propagate quickly and worldwide. This complexity poses a considerable challenge for risk analysis and forecasting. Conventional methods of risk analysis tend to underestimate the probability and impact of risks (e.g. pandemics, financial collapses, terrorist attacks), as sometimes the existence of independent observations is wrongly assumed and cascading errors that can occur in complex systems are not considered. The purpose of this article is to assess critically the potential of big data to profoundly change the current capability for risk forecasting in diverse areas and the assertion that big data leads to better risk predictions. In particular, the focus is on big data implications for risk forecasting in the areas of economic and financial risks, environmental and sustainable development risks, and public and national security risks. The article concludes that big data and predictive analytics offer substantial opportunities for improving risk forecasting but may not replace the significance of appropriate assumptions, adequate data quality and continuous validation.

Copyright
© 2021 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press B.V.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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Journal
Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response
Volume-Issue
10 - 4
Pages
160 - 167
Publication Date
2021/01/21
ISSN (Online)
2210-8505
ISSN (Print)
2210-8491
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.201230.001How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2021 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press B.V.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Cite this article

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Roman Kernchen
PY  - 2021
DA  - 2021/01/21
TI  - Risk Forecasting in the Light of Big Data
JO  - Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response
SP  - 160
EP  - 167
VL  - 10
IS  - 4
SN  - 2210-8505
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.201230.001
DO  - https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.201230.001
ID  - Kernchen2021
ER  -