Employment Beyond Oil: Structural Drivers and Institutional Moderators in MENA Countries

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6463-968-1_25How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Employment; MENA region; diversification; governance; jobless growth

Abstract

The Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) continues to struggle with the economic growth paradox of expanding while experiencing ineffective job creation, particularly among the youth and women. This paper examines the employment structure factors beyond oil reliance and the moderating effect of institutions and demographic transition on 14 MENA countries between 2000 and 2023. Based on Structural Change Theory, Institutional Theory, and Demographic Transition Theory, the analysis employs panel data regression to examine the impact of human capital, financial depth, digital modernization, structural transformation, and resource dependence on labour absorption. The results demonstrate that human capital growth, financialization, digitalization, and institutionalization bring about a profound impact on employment. In contrast, resource dependence and high fertility rates have the opposite effect, absorbing labour markets. Surprisingly, urbanization has no significant impact, suggesting that the region has negligible industry diversification. In addition, the implications of financial and digital modernization for employment are positively moderated by institutional quality, underscoring governance as a significant facilitator of inclusive employment. On the other hand, demographic transition moderates the effects of education and structural change negatively, meaning that high fertility rates dilute the benefits of human capital and employment changes. These findings indicate that there is no single driver that can address the employment challenge; instead, sustainable labour market outcomes will be achieved through the interaction of structural forces, institutional capacity, and demographic dynamics. This paper offers policy implications for reducing jobless development, fostering differentiation, and creating comprehensive, sustainable jobs in the MENA region.

Copyright

© 2025 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Download article (PDF)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Abdelhak Senadjki
AU  - Au Yong Hui Nee
AU  - Thurai Murugan Nathan
AU  - Joseph James Mapendo
AU  - Saliha Djouahra
PY  - 2025
DA  - 2025/12/28
TI  - Employment Beyond Oil: Structural Drivers and Institutional Moderators in MENA Countries
BT  - Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Business, Accounting, Finance and Economics (BAFE 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 337
EP  - 359
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-968-1_25
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-968-1_25
ID  - Senadjki2025
ER  -