Spatial Pattern and Forecast Analysis of Urbanization Growth Rates in Henan: 2011-2015
- DOI
- 10.2991/epee-16.2016.10How to use a DOI?
- Keywords
- urbanization growth rate; iterative clustering analysis; logistic curve model; forecast analysis; spatial pattern
- Abstract
Urbanization growth rate is the conversion speed of agricultural population to non-agricultural population along with the regional population structure transformation process caused by productivity development, modern scientific and technological application and industrial structure adjustment. In the paper, the geospatial-temporal characteristics and the evolution patterns of urbanization growth rates were studied by using spatial statistical analysis methods, and the future development trends were forecasted by Logistic curve model in Henan province from 2011-2015. The results show that, the urbanization growth rates of all cities are gradually slowing down, there have been rapid increasing in a few local regions, but the overall distributions are tending to balance. In the 4 periods, the urbanization growth rates and the urbanization levels are inverse proportion. The spatial distributions of urbanization growth rates show north-south high and intermediate low, and gradually converging from north and south regions toward each other. In the next 5 years, the province urbanization growth rate of environmental loading and environmental endurance exist certain promotion space, the urbanization levels will continue to maintain a rapid growth, the growth rates will be slow down comparing with the past 5 years. There are some certain gaps in the natural growth rates and Thirteen Five Planning Objectives of the province.
- Copyright
- © 2016, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Kaiguang Zhang AU - Mingting Ba AU - Hongling Meng PY - 2016/10 DA - 2016/10 TI - Spatial Pattern and Forecast Analysis of Urbanization Growth Rates in Henan: 2011-2015 BT - Proceedings of the 2016 International Conference on Energy, Power and Electrical Engineering PB - Atlantis Press SP - 45 EP - 49 SN - 2352-5401 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/epee-16.2016.10 DO - 10.2991/epee-16.2016.10 ID - Zhang2016/10 ER -