Proceedings of the Environmental Science and Technology International Conference (ESTIC 2021)

Permafrost Distribution in Mongolia Under the Scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5

Authors
Saruulzaya Adiya1, *, Enkhbat Erdenebat2
1Institute of Geography and Geoecology, Mongolian Academy of Sciences, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
2Information and Research Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
*Corresponding author. Email: saruulzayaa@mas.ac.mn
Corresponding Author
Saruulzaya Adiya
Available Online 1 November 2021.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/aer.k.211029.022How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Distribution of permafrost; the future trend of permafrost; RCP2.6; RCP8.5; Mongolia
Abstract

We examined the projection of permafrost distribution in Mongolia using RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. According to the high emission scenario, an annual average near-surface temperature rapidly increases in Mongolia with high confidence. A similar trend of temperature is obtained at the depth of 3 m. A quantitative analysis of permafrost distribution using a high emission scenario suggests 87.5% of the current distribution of permafrost is vulnerable to climate change at the end of the century in Mongolia. The distribution of permafrost has a gradual reduction during the first half of the 21st century. The high emission scenario confirms distribution of permafrost is vulnerable to ongoing climate change and the distribution of permafrost will have major alterations in the second half of the 21st century in Mongolia.

Copyright
© 2021 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press International B.V.
Open Access
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the Environmental Science and Technology International Conference (ESTIC 2021)
Series
Advances in Engineering Research
Publication Date
1 November 2021
ISBN
978-94-6239-446-9
ISSN
2352-5401
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/aer.k.211029.022How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2021 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press International B.V.
Open Access
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license.

Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Saruulzaya Adiya
AU  - Enkhbat Erdenebat
PY  - 2021
DA  - 2021/11/01
TI  - Permafrost Distribution in Mongolia Under the Scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5
BT  - Proceedings of the Environmental Science and Technology International Conference (ESTIC 2021)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 121
EP  - 125
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aer.k.211029.022
DO  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aer.k.211029.022
ID  - Adiya2021
ER  -