Permafrost Distribution in Mongolia Under the Scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5

DOI

10.2991/aer.k.211029.022How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Distribution of permafrost; the future trend of permafrost; RCP2.6; RCP8.5; Mongolia

Abstract

We examined the projection of permafrost distribution in Mongolia using RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. According to the high emission scenario, an annual average near-surface temperature rapidly increases in Mongolia with high confidence. A similar trend of temperature is obtained at the depth of 3 m. A quantitative analysis of permafrost distribution using a high emission scenario suggests 87.5% of the current distribution of permafrost is vulnerable to climate change at the end of the century in Mongolia. The distribution of permafrost has a gradual reduction during the first half of the 21st century. The high emission scenario confirms distribution of permafrost is vulnerable to ongoing climate change and the distribution of permafrost will have major alterations in the second half of the 21st century in Mongolia.

Copyright

© 2021 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press International B.V.

Open Access

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Saruulzaya Adiya
AU  - Enkhbat Erdenebat
PY  - 2021
DA  - 2021/11/01
TI  - Permafrost Distribution in Mongolia Under the Scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5
BT  - Proceedings of the Environmental Science and Technology International Conference (ESTIC 2021)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 121
EP  - 125
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aer.k.211029.022
DO  - 10.2991/aer.k.211029.022
ID  - Adiya2021
ER  -