Probabilistic Life Prediction for Crack Initiation on Coke Drums Based on Monte Carlo Simulation
- Wei-Wen Ye, Wen-Feng Wang, Zhi-Hua Ning, Ren-Huai Liu, Fan Wang
- Corresponding Author
- Wei-Wen Ye
Available Online December 2016.
- https://doi.org/10.2991/mme-16.2017.26How to use a DOI?
- Coke drum, Crack initiation, Monte carlo simulation, Probabilistic life.
- High thermal stresses developed in coke drums can lead to fatigue crack initiation and subsequently growth until premature drum failure. To predict the fatigue crack initiation lives of coke drums, a cost-efficient method was proposed using Monte Carlo simulation in this paper. Strain data on the critical location of the drum wall was collected through the field measurement. Then statistical analysis was performed to build the probabilistic model of strain amplitude distribution. Large number of strain data could be generated by sampling on the basis of the probabilistic model. The fatigue crack initiation life was calculated according to Manson-Coffin equation and Palmgren-Miner's cumulative damage rule. The crack initiation was predicted probabilistically and the predicting result was in good agreement with the inspection history. The method developed in the present study is expected to be helpful for the future maintenance and inspection of coke drums.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Wei-Wen Ye AU - Wen-Feng Wang AU - Zhi-Hua Ning AU - Ren-Huai Liu AU - Fan Wang PY - 2016/12 DA - 2016/12 TI - Probabilistic Life Prediction for Crack Initiation on Coke Drums Based on Monte Carlo Simulation BT - 3rd Annual International Conference on Mechanics and Mechanical Engineering (MME 2016) PB - Atlantis Press SN - 2352-5401 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/mme-16.2017.26 DO - https://doi.org/10.2991/mme-16.2017.26 ID - Ye2016/12 ER -