Proceedings of the 3rd Annual International Conference on Mechanics and Mechanical Engineering (MME 2016)

Probabilistic Life Prediction for Crack Initiation on Coke Drums Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

Authors
Wei-Wen Ye, Wen-Feng Wang, Zhi-Hua Ning, Ren-Huai Liu, Fan Wang
Corresponding Author
Wei-Wen Ye
Available Online December 2016.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/mme-16.2017.26How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Coke drum, Crack initiation, Monte carlo simulation, Probabilistic life.
Abstract
High thermal stresses developed in coke drums can lead to fatigue crack initiation and subsequently growth until premature drum failure. To predict the fatigue crack initiation lives of coke drums, a cost-efficient method was proposed using Monte Carlo simulation in this paper. Strain data on the critical location of the drum wall was collected through the field measurement. Then statistical analysis was performed to build the probabilistic model of strain amplitude distribution. Large number of strain data could be generated by sampling on the basis of the probabilistic model. The fatigue crack initiation life was calculated according to Manson-Coffin equation and Palmgren-Miner's cumulative damage rule. The crack initiation was predicted probabilistically and the predicting result was in good agreement with the inspection history. The method developed in the present study is expected to be helpful for the future maintenance and inspection of coke drums.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.

Download article (PDF)

Proceedings
3rd Annual International Conference on Mechanics and Mechanical Engineering (MME 2016)
Part of series
Advances in Engineering Research
Publication Date
December 2016
ISBN
978-94-6252-303-6
ISSN
2352-5401
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/mme-16.2017.26How to use a DOI?
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.

Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Wei-Wen Ye
AU  - Wen-Feng Wang
AU  - Zhi-Hua Ning
AU  - Ren-Huai Liu
AU  - Fan Wang
PY  - 2016/12
DA  - 2016/12
TI  - Probabilistic Life Prediction for Crack Initiation on Coke Drums Based on Monte Carlo Simulation
BT  - 3rd Annual International Conference on Mechanics and Mechanical Engineering (MME 2016)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/mme-16.2017.26
DO  - https://doi.org/10.2991/mme-16.2017.26
ID  - Ye2016/12
ER  -