The Combined Forecasting Model Based on Wavelet Analysis in the Application of the Civil Aviation Passenger Traffic

DOI

10.2991/ssemse-15.2015.610How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Wavelet Analysis; Grey forecasting model; Exponential Smoothing Model; Passenger volume forecast; Relative error

Abstract

China’s civil aviation passenger traffic was taken as the research object, the yearly passenger traffic with the theory of wavelet analysis is based on the multi-scale analysis on the time sequence to get the sequences of coefficient on different scales in order to reduce the randomness of the original sequence. And then the time sequence forecast respectively after the re-factored was based on the Grey forecasting model and exponential smoothing model. After the series of passenger traffic time series characteristics and sequence were analysis, the combination model on the wavelet analysis of non-stationary time series of Grey prediction model and exponential smoothing model was set. Finally the model for passenger traffic was applied to an empirical analysis of China's civil aviation passenger traffic. The results show that the model has higher prediction precision and small relative error, so it provides a new method to handle the original non-stationary time series prediction.

Copyright

© 2015, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - D.D. Bai
AU  - J.Y. Wei
PY  - 2015/11
DA  - 2015/11
TI  - The Combined Forecasting Model Based on Wavelet Analysis in the Application of the Civil Aviation Passenger Traffic
BT  - Proceedings of the 2015 International Conference on Social Science, Education Management and Sports Education
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 2401
EP  - 2404
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/ssemse-15.2015.610
DO  - 10.2991/ssemse-15.2015.610
ID  - Bai2015/11
ER  -