The Combined Forecasting Model Based on Wavelet Analysis in the Application of the Civil Aviation Passenger Traffic
- 10.2991/ssemse-15.2015.610How to use a DOI?
- Wavelet Analysis; Grey forecasting model; Exponential Smoothing Model; Passenger volume forecast; Relative error
China’s civil aviation passenger traffic was taken as the research object, the yearly passenger traffic with the theory of wavelet analysis is based on the multi-scale analysis on the time sequence to get the sequences of coefficient on different scales in order to reduce the randomness of the original sequence. And then the time sequence forecast respectively after the re-factored was based on the Grey forecasting model and exponential smoothing model. After the series of passenger traffic time series characteristics and sequence were analysis, the combination model on the wavelet analysis of non-stationary time series of Grey prediction model and exponential smoothing model was set. Finally the model for passenger traffic was applied to an empirical analysis of China's civil aviation passenger traffic. The results show that the model has higher prediction precision and small relative error, so it provides a new method to handle the original non-stationary time series prediction.
- © 2015, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - D.D. Bai AU - J.Y. Wei PY - 2015/11 DA - 2015/11 TI - The Combined Forecasting Model Based on Wavelet Analysis in the Application of the Civil Aviation Passenger Traffic BT - Proceedings of the 2015 International Conference on Social Science, Education Management and Sports Education PB - Atlantis Press SP - 2401 EP - 2404 SN - 2352-5398 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/ssemse-15.2015.610 DO - 10.2991/ssemse-15.2015.610 ID - Bai2015/11 ER -