Proceedings of the 7th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention

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155 articles

Statistical Significance of Typhoon Risk and Calculation of the Risk per Year

Chongfu Huang
The risks in terms of statistical significance refer to ones that could be analyzed by using random samples. The typhoon risk in statistics is the average loss caused by typhoons. The risk per year calculated with a stochastic process has more clear physical meaning. Monte Carlo method can not improve...

Research on the Mutation Mechanism of Victim's Psychology and Behavior after Natural Disaster Based on Catastrophe Theory

Weiwei Zhang, Xuanhua Xu, Bin Pan
Aiming at the problem of victim's rational and irrational behavior during recovery stage in natural disaster, this paper analyzed the victim's psychological and behavioral characteristics and influencing factors during recovery stage based on lots of literatures and an interview with victims. Besides,...

Comparative Study on Risk Assessment System of New Chemical Materials of China and European Union

Lang Huang, Chao Wu
In order to enrich the risk assessment system of new chemical materials of China, a comparative study on risk assessment system of new materials of China and EU was made. Firstly, the comparative study steps were put forward based on the paradigm system of comparative safety science. Then, the development...

Influence and Risk Assessment of Climate Change in Airport of China based on Hesistant Analytic Hierarchy Process and TOPSIS

Chenyang Song, Ren Zhang, Taiping Hou, Chengzu Bai, Kefeng Liu, Qiang Long
The risks of climate change in six major airports in China's coastal areas.

The Weight Analysis of Northeast Passage Straits Index Based on AHP and Rough Set Theory

Zhe Wang, Shanshan Ge, Ren Zhang, Mengqian Yang, Deliang Jiang
The index weight of the reasonable is the basis of objective and quantitative assessment of the risk. Taking a sample of the Northeast Passage Vilkitsky Strait, using the combination of subjectively and objectively, realize the complementary advantages of two ways, to establish the northeast passage...

Risk Assessment Method of Coastal Erosion Disasters

Shiyong Wen, Fengshou Zhang, Xiang Wang, Xinxin Wang, Fei Li, Fei Wang, Ning Gao, Xuegong Xu
Coastal erosion disaster is one of marine disasters. Coastal erosion disasters caused large areas of land loss, destroyed coastal ecological environment system, and seriously affect the sustainable development of social economy in coastal areas. To effectively cope with the coastal erosion disasters...

Assessment of West Liaohe River Basin's Ecological Vulnerability and Temporal-Spatial Distribution based on Landscape Pattern

Feng Zhang, Jiquan Zhang, Yanan Chen, Qiyun Ma, Enliang Guo, Yongfang Wang
West Liaohe River Basin, which is known as a typical ecological vulnerable district of Northeast China, is taken as a case study in this paper. By collecting 3 period Landsat TM image of 1992,2002 and 2012, the landscape pattern figure is interpreted. Landscape sensitivity index and landscape adaptability...

Research on Vulnerability Curve of Grassland Snow Disaster of Livestock on Historical Disaster Data in Xilingol

Si Ha, Jiquan Zhang, Zhenhua Dong, Xiangqian Li, Enliang Guo
Natural disaster risk is the possibility of disaster losses, depending on hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and emergency response and recovery capability. Vulnerability is to measure the degree of hazard bearing body when suffered damage, which is not only an important part of risk assessment for loss...

Study on Influence Factors of Regional Flood Disaster Resilience Based on DEMATEL-ANP

Xianfu Cheng, Honghu Sun
The influence degree and causal relationship between the recognition factors are significant to the analysis of the key influencing factors of flood disaster resilience. Influencing factors of regional flood disaster resilience are selected from the five dimensions of nature, society, economy, technology...

The Generalized Extreme Value Model for Seismic Hazard Estimation of Potential Source Area based on Maximum Information Entropy Principle

Luchuan Ren, Zhe Liu, Jianwei Tian
The author proposes a method to establish the generalized extreme value model for strong earthquake hazard estimation of a potential source area, based on the maximum information entropy principle and corresponding constraint conditions, and then selects the Ryukyu trench subduction zone as a potential...

Evaluation of Flood Vulnerability of Typical Regions at Dongting Lake Area in China Based on Multi-source Information Digging and Fusion

Dehua Mao, Jinli Wang, Xiaohong Fu, Jinhui Li
The flood vulnerability comprehensive evaluation model was established through interpreting the remote sensing image data in 1987, 1998 and 2008 by means of ENVI4.8 and GIS, the collection and analysis to the historical disaster maps and statistical yearbook data of the flood disaster of Dongting Lake...

Study on hazard factor assessment caused by snow disaster in pastoral areas of Inner Mongolia grassland based on Multi-source Remote Sensing Data

Chula Sa, Guixiang Liu, Mulan Wang, Yuhai Bao
The daily snow depth time series data set from passive microwave remote sensing(1978-2012) were used in this paper. Establishment of snow cover index to evaluate the risk factors of disaster.The areas with highest risk of snow disaster happened were mainly distributed in northeast of Dongwuzhumuqin banner,...

Assessment of Water Resources Security in Semi Arid Area based on GIS-A Case Study in Naiman County, Inner Mongolia

Xiangqian Li, Zhijun Tong, Zhenhua Dong, Si Ha, Feng Zhang, Pengda Lin
As basic production and living materials, water resources is essential for social-economic development, and is increasingly becoming the limiting factor of regional economic sustainable development. Naiman County is located in the south edge of Horqin sandy land, which faces great challenge of water...

Risk Identification Model Based on System Theory and Its Implementation Technical Analysis

Hubo Zhang, Tiezhong Liu
In view of the interactive and systematic problems of accident caused by high technology, the method of risk identification in the perspective of system theory is studied. We analyze the Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Process (STAMP) and the basic steps of Hazard Analysis Technology (STPA) based...

Risk Analysis of Mongolian Erannis Jacobsoni Djak's Invasion into the Inner Mongolia Area

Xiaojun Huang, Yuhai Bao, Altanchimeg D., Ren Bu, Miao Fu, Mei Yong
Erannis jacobsoni Djak is the most important forest pest in Mongolia and has seriously destructive effect to forest ecological system. It is important to study the invasion risk of Inner Mongolia, which is of great significance for the effective prevention of cross-border disaster. Based on it, firstly,...

The Review of Methods for Debris Flow Hazard Assessment

Hui Gao, Jifu Liu
China is one of the countries which are suffering the most serious debris flows. The social life and economy in the mountain area are suffering a lot from them. With the frequency of debris flow increases in recent years, the threat to human life and property is bigger and bigger. Especially the seismic...

Ecological Risk Assessment and its Spatiotemporal Variations of Northeast China based on Landscape Pattern

Lina Lina, Yulong Bao, Yinshan Yinshan, Chunsheng Mu, Yuhai Bao
The analysis of landscape ecological risk in Northeast China has important guiding significance for the establishment of regional ecological early warning mechanism, the promotion of regional ecological environmental protection and environmental management and social and economic development. Northeast...

Ecological Risk Assessment of HuBaoE Area in Inner Mongolia based on Ecological Footprint Analyses

Jianghong Zhen
Based on the theory, method and model of ecological footprint, this paper measured and analyzed the ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity, ecological deficit, ecological pressure index and ecological risk degree in Huhhot, Baotou and Erdos from 1990 to 2010. The results show: (1) The per...

On the Risk Assessment of Storm Surge Disasters in the Coastal Areas of Qingdao

Song Gao, Shan Zhong, Xihu Lian, Lingjuan Wu, Tao Bai, Yaru Li
Based on the regional disaster system theory, the risk and vulnerability of storm surges in the coastal areas of Qingdao are assessed quantitatively and qualitatively respectively, and a risk index system of storm surge disasters in coastal areas of Qingdao is constructed in this paper. A storm surge...

On the Hazard Identification Method of Plastic Toys

Xia Liu, Bisong Liu, Qian Wu, Ya Li
Safety of plastics toys has been paid more and more attention. Risk identification of plastic toy in product life cycle, has important effect on promoting the safety of the products. A comprehensive list is established during the design stage.During the manufacturing process, safety check list is used....

Constructing the Training Mode of Public Security Fire Commanders Based on Competency Model

Yi Hou
This paper introduced the competency mode of public security fire commanders, and analyzed the problems existed in the current public security fire commander abilities. Then it proposed the training mode of public security fire commanders based on competency mode. What's more, it also introduced specific...

Prediction of Seawater Intrusion in Laizhou Bay Area under Groundwater Pumping Activities

Xiankui Zeng, Dong Wang, Jichun Wu
With the rapid development of society and economy in China, the demand for water resource is increasing with industry and agriculture activities. Due to the excessive exploitation of groundwater resource, and global climate change, the seawater intrusion had arisen at some coastal areas in China. In...

A Modeling Technology of Aircraft Landing Safety Prediction under the Extreme Weather Conditions in the Future Based on Cloud Theory

Yangjun Wang, Ren Zhang, Shuang Shen, Zhenghua Wu
This paper focus on hazards, vulnerability and prevention ability three aspects to establish a model for evaluating the safety of aircraft take-off and landing, choosing high winds, low cloud and low visibility as the hazards. Among them, the trend of wind speed is obtained directly from the CMIP5 multi-model...

Study on Crisis Early-warning of Internet Rumors about Emergencies Based on BP Neural Network

Ying Zhou, Peng Zhang, Yuexin Lan, Haoqing Li
With the emergencies raising a media storm on the internet, it always brings all kinds of internet rumors at the same time, which not only damages the government's image, but also creates great obstacles to dealing with emergencies. Therefore, conducting risk assessments about Internet Rumors in emergencies...

Study on Emergency Evacuation System of City Waterlogging Wargaming Rules of Residents

Peng Chen, Jiquan Zhang, Yingyue Sun, Xiaojing Liu, Jiafu Liu
Urban waterlogging disaster is a serious threat to urban residents' life. The research of urban waterlogging disasters residents emergency shelter by wargaming deductive is available to deduce high risk events at low cost, which can assess and find the emergency loophole and improve the level of emergency...

Study on the Warning of Giant Jellyfish Disaster in the Coastal Waters of Qingdao

Lingjuan Wu, Tao Bai, Guiyan Liu
In this paper, with reference to emergency response and warning standard of marine ecological disaster such as red tide and green tide, the methods of external giant jellyfish disaster warning in the coastal waters of Qingdao have been studied according to jellyfish species, toxicity, distribution density,...

Research on Rapid Assessment of Earthquake Death Toll Based on Neural Network

Haoyu Wu, Xinyan Wu, Hongwei Li, Yong Luo
101 post-1960 fatal earthquakes in China mainland were selected to build a BP neural network model for rapid earthquake fatality estimation. In this model, event time, magnitude, epicenter intensity, population density and the event region were selected as input vectors. While, the fatality was assigned...

Evolutionary Game Analysis and Simulations for Intra-Village Conflict of Collective Land Expropriation

Haowen Wang, Qiuxiang Li, Haijun Bao, Yi Peng
With rapid urbanization, the social risk caused by collective land expropriation has been increasing. Land conflict rather than the farmers' burden has been the first important issue affecting social security in rural areas. The existing studies on land conflict pay few attentions to intra-village conflict...

Early Warnings and Benefits Assessment for Disastrous Weathers during 2012 Typhoon

Yanjun Zhou, Sha Wang
The Typhoon Damrey, which was entering the Bohai Sea area of Qinghuangdao in 2012, is analyzed comprehensively and evaluated for services using the data from FY-2E Infrared, radar, Micaps 3.1 system, insular stations, buoys, and numerical products, and synchronously comparing between disasters report,...

The Monitoring of a Severe Convective Case in Bohai Sea Area on August 31,2015

Yanjiang Li, Yanjun Zhou
using the synchronous data such as weather radar, oceanic WRF model etc., a severe convective weather process has been analyzed on August 31, 2015 in Bohai Sea area,the results show that the shear line moved eastward and enhanced at the 925hPa and 850hPa in Bohai Bay from 08:00 to 20:00,the index K was...

Forecast and Disaster Cause Analysis of Tropical Storm Damrey into the Gulf of Bohai

Zhiming Yu, Siyao Wang, Xiaodong Zhang
Based on the data of FY-2E infrared cloud image, radar, micaps3.1, island observation station, large buoy, and numerical weather forecasting products, effects of tropical storm Damrey in 2012 on Tangshan were analyzed, forecast and disaster cause of tropical storm Damrey were also analyzed. The results...

Assessment of Rainstorm Disaster-causing Force of Flood Risk in Central and Eastern China

Dapeng Huang, Lei Zhang
Using the 1961-2008 daily precipitation data from 300 meteorological stations in central and eastern China, seven rainstorm factors were selected to construct a synthesis indicator of rainstorm disaster-causing force by principal component analysis according to the principle that rainstorm disaster-causing...

Lessons of mitigation from a low frequency debris flow event

Yongbo Tie, Jintao Jiang
The risks in terms of statistical significance refer to ones that could be analyzed by using random samples. The typhoon risk in statistics is the average loss caused by typhoons. The risk per year calculated with a stochastic process has more clear physical meaning. Monte Carlo method can not improve...

Flood and Water-Logging Disaster Risk Analysis and Research of Bazhong City

Menghao Xi, Qiuhong Zhao, Ningcheng Yang
Flood natural disasters to the human society has caused heavy casualties and property losses, etc., based on the statistical analysis of Sichuan Bazhong flood formation mechanism of natural disasters, on the basis of using risk management theory and methods of building mathematical model for the evaluation...

Risk Assessment of Typhoon Storm Surge Disasters in Guangdong Province Based on the Improved Fuzzy Bayesian Network

Chengzu Bai, Ren Zhang, JianQi Zhang, Ting Wang
To expand insufficient information resource and express fuzzy uncertainty for risk assessment, a new Bayesian network was proposed in this paper. Information diffusion model and triangle fuzzy values were employed to improve the prior probability, using Monte Carlo method to establish the conditional...

Regionalization of Flood Disaster Risk on the County Scale in Semiarid Region-in HeLinGe'Er Case

Xuguang Liu, Ren Bu, Yulong Bao, Baocheng Wei
Based on using basic geographic,socio-economic statistics and meteorological data of HeLinGe'Er, in addition the mechanisms of flood disaster for the risk analysis and divisions,it formed flood disaster index system of risk analysis,it including the indexs of hazard factor,hazard inducing environment,disaster...

Evaluation of Eco-environmental Sensitivity in Xilingol Grassland

Li Mei, Shan Yin, Wala Du, Yuhai Bao, Shan Yu
This paper selected the soil erosion, land desertization, bio-inhabitation as sensitive factor to research eco-environmental sensitivity spatial distribution characteristics of the Xilingol Grassland. (1)slight sensitivity is the main level of soil erosion sensitivity, which mainly distributes in the...

The Response Characteristics of Xilingol Grassland to Uneven Distribution of Precipitation at Temporal and Spatial Scale

Qiaofeng Zhang, Hongbo Yu, Guixiang Liu, Yuhai Bao
Precipitation is the most important water supply source, it has important significance on the vegetation growth, and was an important factor affecting the drought severity in Xilingol grassland. Based on 15 meteorological stations precipitation data and MODIS MOD13A3 NDVI data, Pearson correlation analysis...

Characteristics and Sensitivity Analysis Division of Flood Disaster in Hohhot

Na Zha, Ren Bu, Fuying Qin
Based on 1993 to 2012 of daily precipitation data from seven meteorological station in Hohhot , rainstorm and flood disaster data, Hohhot water distribution figure, 30 meters DEM digital elevation image and Landsat TM images data, using GIS spatial analysis method, classification method, Dimidiate Pixel...

Evaluation of Typhoon Disaster Losses of Hainan Island Rubber Plantation

Jinghong Zhang, Haijing Huang, Xiufen Che, Mingjie Zhang
Hainan Island is selected as the study area, which is the main base of natural rubber production. In this research, according to the analysis and study of the cause of rubber wind disaster, parameters in the evaluation model was determined with statistics method based on the environment background and...

The Application of the Hesistant Analytic Hierarchy Process in the Natural Risk Assessment of Overseas Support Bases

Deliang Jiang, Ren Zhang, Zhe Wang, Mengqian Yang
Focusing on the potential natural risk of overseas support bases, the paper structures the assessment model based on the risk identification according to the particular political and military function. The model uses the Hesitated Analytic Hierarchy Process to collect the specialistic information in...

Copula-based Analysis of Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Drought in Songnen Grassland

Rina Wu, Jiquan Zhang, Quan Lai, Siqin Tong
In this paper, daily temperature and daily precipitation data at 15 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2014 in Songnen Grassland were used to analyze the characteristics of spatial distribution of drought. A drought event is defined by the run theory and the drought event is described by two characteristic...

Analysis of Anomalous Tropical Cyclone Activities over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2015

Dandan Yu, Lishan Li, Lei Wan
Tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2015 have such characteristics as so many typhoons in winter and spring, so few typhoons in the South China Sea, generated source is easier than usual. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and the Outgoing Long...

The Application of Gray Model and BP Artificial Neural Network in Predicting Drought in the Liaoning Province

Xiaojing Liu, Yongpeng Song, Donglai Ma, Peng Chen
Precipitation prediction is the core of a regional drought prediction. Due to the great randomness and uncertainty in the precipitation process, this study combined the grey model and BP artificial neural network. The residual errors of precipitation were modified by the BP artificial neural network...

Study of Handan's Urban Waterlog Risk Problem Based on Two-dimensional Information Diffusion Model

Shujun Guo, Fanlei Zeng, Ga Wang, Gongwen Zhang, Jianwei Liu, Hongfeng Wang, Wei Sun
this paper studied urban road waterlog risk problem of Handan based on the two-dimensional information diffusion model, fist to collected original data including distribution of waterlog spots, raining strength, waterlog history, danger sources and risk bearing objects with the joint of meteorology department,...

Hohhot Earthquake Emergency Shelter Planning and Construction Situation Analysis and Suggestion

Xiaoli Cui, Zhifen Sun, Narenmandula Narenmandula, Zhuoligetu Zhuoligetu, Jianzhong Zhang
Reasonable planning and construction of emergency shelters is an important job for urban economic and social sustainable development, to ensure the safety of people's lives and property, it has very important significance for earthquake disaster reduction. This paper introduces the principle of planning...

Grey forecasting of flood disaster and characteristics of summer grading-precipitation in Togtoh County

Qimuge Qimuge, Buren Buren, Xiaojun Huang
Flood disaster is one of the meteorological disasters which has a great frequency and is more serious in China. Because of the geographical location of Togtoh County, the rainfall is often concentrated in the summer, so the summer rainfall in the region has a direct impact on the occurrence of floods....

Disaster Risk of Landscape-Rockfall in Danxia Landform of Kongtong Mountain

Yutian Ke, Shouyun Liang, Zhuo Chen
Kongtong Mountain national geopark is characterized by Danxia landform. Lots of strange shaped unstable rocks emerged in the Danxia landform areas, not only do they have great ornamental and aesthetic value but also are potential geological disasters. During the formation process of landscape-rockfall,...

A Tentative Study on the Influence of Climate Variations for Clipping Pasture's Straw Yield in Hulunbuir Grassland-With Chenbarag Banner for Example

Wei Yan, Hugejiletu Hugejiletu, Narenmandula Narenmandula
The paper takes Chenbarag Banner, Hulunbuir on as the research object, analysis the meteorological data of 1980-2015 and quadrat survey data of 2011-2015, preliminary mastered the influnce of climate change on clipping pasture's straw yield in Hulunbuir Grassland. It is concluded that: First, Chenbarag...

Influence of Hydrothermal Condition and Topography on Dynamic of Vegetation Coverage in Inner Mongolia

Durina Wen, Yuhai Bao, Shan Yin
Vegetation cover is a good indicator for evaluation terrestrial environment. The research on the response of hydrothermal conditions and the relationship with the topographic condition has become one of the main contents.The annual dynamics and spatial variability of vegetation in Inner Mongolia were...